Abstract

In an age of emerging zoonoses, it is important to understand the intricate system of vectors and reservoirs, or hosts, and their relation to humans. West Nile Virus (WNV) has been detected in a myriad of nonhuman hosts. Transmission of the virus to humans is reliant on amplified seroprevalence within the host, which occurs primarily in birds. However, recent studies have found that other animal groups, including crocodilians, can obtain seroprevalence amplification to levels that make them competent hosts able to transmit WNV to mosquitoes, which can then transmit to humans. Climate change could exacerbate this transmission risk by shifting the distributions of mosquito vectors towards novel geographic ranges. Here, we use maximum entropy models to map the current and future distributions of three mosquito vector species and four crocodilian species in North America to determine the emerging risk of WNV outbreaks associated with changing climates and WNV associated with crocodilians in North America. From our models, we determined that one mosquito species in particular, Culex quinquefasciatus, will increase its distribution across the ranges of all crocodilian species in all tested climate change scenarios. This poses a potential risk to public health for people visiting and living near crocodilian farms and high-density natural crocodilian populations.